Socio-economic factors of migration of the population of the Karaganda region

Abstract

Object: The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of socio-economic factors on the migration of the population of the Karaganda region.

Methods: The study was carried out using the methods of absolute and relative differences, comparative approach, correlation and regression analysis, Microsoft Excel.

Findings: The put forward hypothesis of the influence of the average monthly wage, average per capita nominal cash income of the population, GRP per capita, housing costs on the migration of the population of the Karaganda region was confirmed. The index of real monetary incomes of the population in the period under review had little effect on the migration of the population. And, the hypothesis of the impact of unemployment on the migration of the population was not confirmed.

Conclusions: In the Karaganda region, there is a negative balance of migration of the population. The urban actively participates in the external migration of the population. There is a high intensity in the internal migration of the population. For 2017-2021, in the Karaganda region, the average monthly wage increased by 1.7 times, but it is below the republican level. The average per capita nominal cash income of the population has continuously increased throughout the analyzed period from 82299 tenge to 142802 tenge, and the index of real money income of the population decreased from 108.2 to 98.2. Unemployment rate in the region since 2017 by 2020 decreased from 4.8 % to 4.4 %, and in 2021 it increased by 0.1 points and amounted to 4.5 %. The cost of housing per 1 square meter in the Karaganda region for the analyzed period is growing and in 2021 amounted to 276026 tenge. GRP per capita in 2021 compared to 2017 increased by 2318.4 thousand tenge and amounted to 5419.3 thousand tenge. In the region, the relationship between average monthly wages, average per capita nominal cash income of the population, GRP per capita, housing costs and population migration is medium and positive. The relationship between the index of real money incomes of the population and population migration is weak and positive. The relationship between the unemployment rate and population migration is very weak and negative. Socio-economic factors influence the migration of the population of the Karaganda region. Lack of proper control can lead to a number of negative consequences. For further development of the region, it is necessary to eliminate the influence of negative factors. Migration policy should contribute to this. Migration policy should primarily be aimed at maintaining and increasing the number of able-bodied population.